Monday, 12 September 2022

What went wrong then, my old matey?

Like in the cartoon film Big Hero 6 where one of the characters said, ‘What’s the plan? What IS the plan? There has to be a plan’, Russian soldiers say the same thing. It has quite abundantly become clear, there was no plan at all with the invasion of the Ukraine. It seemed that from the beginning the idea was just to march into Kiev, take the government hostage and go back to Moscow eating borscht. Job done. Puppet regime in and to be followed by a so-called trial for nazi crimes. Putin was ready, already seated at a huge enormous table but now still by himself. There were supposed to be all his victorious generals beside him. Ah, how fate intervenes! Instead what have we got? Russia a laughing stock, an army that proved to be no army but a bunch of farm boys handling stuff dated from WW2 and only then if they spoke or understood the accompanying leaflet ‘How to load and fire the gun’. Most of the Russian weapons were based on foreign designs. Farm boys are not designers or engineers. Although there is nothing wrong with farm boys. Hard workers but soldiers? Especially soldiers in today’s techno world? You simply cannot just pluck people from farms or factories put a helmet on them and send to another country. Telling them to be ready for the victory parade so bring the feathered caps and flags. No need to bring food, there will be plenty when you get there. Enjoy the adoring crowds lining the roads!  

So how did it all turn upside down? Well, the only thing you can say is that the top people had too many assumptions about the real state of the field. Did not consider the changed attitude after 2014, the annexation of the Crimea. Neither noticed the build up, according to western methods, of the Ukrainian army. The establishment of a proper NCO cadre. The increased cooperation of the junior officers with western counterparts and the sacking of Russia-leaning top brass. Or if they did notice, disregarded it as not important. I have been in a western army and know how important sergeants are! It allows for smaller units, fast, mobile action. Russians only depend on vast ammunition stockpiles and artillery battles. What I have wondered from the beginning is what did they expect to be in after they literally flattened a country to just a pile of rubble? A wasteland where no-one could live? That seems a strange goal! So far, all of it has just resulted in the exact opposite of what was said to be the reasons for the invasion (sorry, special military action). The Ukraine has now turned into a rather large enemy, probably will join NATO in the near future. Two other countries have nearly completed joining NATO and all other NATO countries have upped their expenditure.

Even so, we will need to watch because Russia and China both, have now noted the increased resistance and military candour of the western world. Both are now busy projecting their influence to Asia and Africa, even to South America. China is doing so in a financial manner and continuing to do so. African countries are in dire need of finance, mostly because of gross incompetence and corruption but that does not seemingly deter China or Russia. The world will be an interesting place for a while, to say the least! You may wonder what it is all about. Because with the technology around today, warfare is a dead duck, literally! No winners, only losers.

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