Tuesday, 12 April 2022

What is the Suwalki Gap?

With various reports now circulating about Russia’s intentions I think it is becoming clearer as to what is happening. Obviously, Ukraine is but a start. I noticed a map on the news that showed the Kaliningrad Oblast enclave and the Russian intent to ‘reunify’ the enclave to Belarus, its staunch ally. The land in question is called the Suwalki Gap. It would however bring Poland and therefore NATO, in direct conflict. I might have to admit that it seems we are going down the route of a total war. It might end in a nuclear conflict unless both sides refrain from MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). It ought to be obvious what road Russia is taking. It simply is to go as far and as fast as possible. It is a costly exercise, if I may say it like that. Given the poor command structure, the quality of the soldiers, the morale and problems with logistics, I am not at all certain how this will pan out. In sheer numbers the Russians would win any war. Just like the Chinese tried during the Korean war. But throwing great numbers of soldiers into the field does not equate a victory. Spirited defence, capable well trained soldiers, even with a shortage of weapons are still a formidable opposition! In fact history shows that in the majority of wars the initial underdog wins. The reasons cited by Russia to have attacked the Ukraine already shows the weaknesses and will be its eventual defeat. Western Europe may be safe for now but the northern states, Baltics, Finland, even Sweden may be in the eye of the Kremlin. If that happens Western Europe is no longer safe. It all sounds pretty grim, it may not happen but viewing Russia’s actions we cannot be sure. There is little chance of Russia ever succeeding but the damage will be great as shown in Mariupol and other places.

Viewing the destruction a fair question is, what’s your point again Mr Putin? I do feel that the Russian government, for whatever is left has distanced itself from the population generally. Through falsehoods, sheer propaganda and straightforward lies most of the people have quietly acquiesced with what is happening. But let’s wait until enough body bags return or sons, fathers, uncles simply have disappeared from the face of the Earth. That will be the time when questions will come thick and fast. In the meantime the West MUST totally support the Ukraine, even to the tune of putting soldiers in the field. Putin is only doing this war because because he thinks the West basically toothless. Too occupied with it’s own problems and dependence on Russian oil and gas. The West has basically been completely outmanoeuvred by Russia’s intransigence, time to get back our mojo! Or is it Bojo?

No comments:

Post a Comment